O‘ZBEKISTON QISHLOQ XO'JALIGIGA IQLIM O‘ZGARISHINING TA’SIRI VA MOSLASHUV STRATEGIYALAR
Keywords:
iqlim o'zgarishi, qishloq xo'jaligi, O'zbekiston, hosildorlik, suv resurslari, moslashuv strategiyalari, tuproq sho'rlanishi, qurg'oqchilik, bug'doy, paxta.Abstract
Ushbu maqola O'zbekiston qishloq xo'jaligiga iqlim o'zgarishining ta'sirini o'rganadi. 1960–2023 yillarda kuzatilgan ma'lumotlar va modellashtirilgan prognozlar asosida tahlil qilingan. Natijalar shuni ko'rsatadiki, o'rtacha haroratning +1.2 °C ga oshishi (1991 yildan beri taxminan 0.4 °C/har o'n yillikda) va yog'ingarchilikning kamayishi qurg'oqchilik chastotasini oshirgan. Paxta, bug'doy va bog'dorchilik hosildorligi 2050-yillarga borib 25–63% ga kamayishi mumkin, bu issiqlik, suv stressi va daryo oqimlarining qisqarishi bilan bog'liq. Aral dengizining qurishi tuproq sho'rlanishi va chang bo'ronlarini kuchaytiradi, irrigatsiya tizimlarida suv yo'qotilishi 30–75% ni tashkil etadi. 2030 yilga borib kamida 8 million odam yuqori iqlim xavfi zonalarida yashashi mumkin, iqtisodiyot esa moslashmasdan 2050 yilga borib 10% ga qisqarishi mumkin. Moslashuv strategiyalari, jumladan suv tejovchi irrigatsiya (masalan, lazerli yer tekislash suv sarfini 15–20% ga kamaytiradi va hosildorlikni 5–7 sentner/ga oshiradi), iqlimga chidamli ekinlar, issiqxonalar kengaytirish (maydon 2,6 baravar oshgan, ishlab chiqarish 3 baravardan ortiq o'sgan) va raqamli monitoring taklif etiladi. Tadqiqot O'zbekistonning G'arbiy qismida iqlim o'zgarishiga oid pessimistik va optimistik stsenariylarni ko'rib chiqadi, fermalar daromadi 25% ga tushishi yoki 46% ga oshishi mumkinligini ko'rsatadi. Shuningdek, bug'doy ishlab chiqarishdagi pasayish oziq-ovqat xavfsizligiga tahdid soladi, 2100 yilga borib yetkazib berish talabdan 2,7 million tonnaga kam bo'lishi mumkin.
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