UGLEROD SAVDOSI TIZIMINI RIVOJLANTIRISHDA NARX BELGILASH MEXANIZMLARINI TAKOMILLASHTIRISH
Keywords:
uglerod narxi; ETS; narx koridori; minimal narx (floor); maksimal narx (ceiling); bozor barqarorligi; market stability reserve; costAbstract
ushbu tezis emissiyalar savdosi tizimi (Emissions Trading System – ETS) doirasida narx belgilash va narxni barqarorlashtirish mexanizmlarining samaradorligini tahlil qiladi hamda Oʻzbekiston sharoitida ularni takomillashtirish bo‘yicha takliflarni asoslaydi. Metodlar: EU ETS, RGGI, Kaliforniya–Kvebek, Koreya ETS, Qozogʻiston ETS va Xitoy ETS tajribasi bo‘yicha qiyosiy institutsional tahlil; Oʻzbekiston sanoati uchun ssenariyli (Monte-Karlo) modellashtirish; Delphi ekspert baholash. Natijalar: Oʻzbekiston uchun bosqichma-bosqich joriy etiladigan “narx koridori” (price collar) maqbul: start bosqichida 8–20 AQSh dollari/tCO₂e, keyingi bosqichda 10–28 AQSh dollari/tCO₂e; taklifni avtomatik moslashtirish (rezerv/MSR analogi) bilan birga qoʻllanganda bozor barqarorligini model bo‘yicha 68% gacha oshirishi mumkin. Ahamiyati: Oʻzbekistonda uglerod bozori dizayni va narx siyosatini ishlab chiqishni qoʻllab-quvvatlaydi.
Abstract. Purpose: This thesis analyzes the effectiveness of price-setting and price-stabilization mechanisms within an Emissions Trading System (ETS) and substantiates proposals for improving them under Uzbekistan’s conditions. Methods: comparative institutional analysis of the EU ETS, RGGI, California–Québec, Korea ETS, Kazakhstan ETS, and China ETS; scenario-based (Monte Carlo) modeling for Uzbekistan’s industry; Delphi expert assessment. Results: a phased “price corridor” (price collar) is optimal for Uzbekistan: USD 8–20/tCO₂e at the initial stage and USD 10–28/tCO₂e at the subsequent stage; when combined with automatic supply adjustment (a reserve/MSR analogue), the model indicates market stability could increase by up to 68%. Significance: The findings support carbon market design and pricing policy development in Uzbekistan.
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